Modelling and Intelligence –  Angela Magnaye

The goal of the Working Group is to make robust predictions of the impact of environmental change (land-use, demographic or climate change) on future human disease burden through the development of environmental-mechanistic modelling frameworks. This is can be achieved through understanding the phylogenetic and environmental correlates of reservoir host sero-prevalence across Africa, Understanding the seasonal and climatic cycles that influence the dynamics and abundance of reservoir hosts, and Understanding how predicted future global changes will influence the distribution and probability of spill over and transmission of VHFs.

Our phylogenetically informed environmental-mechanistic modelling framework will create a robust forecasting framework within which to calculate current spatial risk and examine the impact of future global change or policy interventions on VHF across Africa.