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Predicting the Spread & Mortality Rate of Covid-19 in the Different Continent Using Models

SUMMARY OF THE RESULT

The following can be deduced from the results of the models we used to predict the spread and mortality rate of COVID-19 disease:

  • The spread of COVID-19 virus will be highest in Asia compared to other continents
  • The Americas will have the second-largest reported cases of COVID-19 disease, However, the rate of spread of the disease will decrease by 5.4246 times compare to Asia
  • Australia and Europe will have a similar rate of spread, but the rate will decrease by 4.8456 times and 3.8533 times for Australia and Europe respectively when compared to Asia
  • Africa will significantly have reduced reported cases of COVID-19 with the rate of spread of the disease expected to decrease by 15.2823 times in Africa compared to Asia

MORTALITY RATE

  • The reported cases of death resulting from COVID-19 will be highest in Asia
  • Europe will have the second-highest reported cases of death resulting from COVID-19. However, the reported cases of death is expected to decrease by 3.0219 times in Europe compare to Asia
  • The Americas are expected to follow Asia and Europe in the mortality rate resulting from COVID-19. The expected number of death reported cases is expected to decrease in America by 7.1645 times compare to Asia
  • Africa and Australia are expected to have the lowest death rate from COVID-19. The expected number of reported cases of death is expected to decrease by 7.5193 times in Australia and Africa compare to Asia

    Results

    Table 1: Modelling Reported Cases of Coronavirus using Zero Truncated Poisson Regression Model without status of individuals confirmed to be positive (dead or not dead)

    Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
    Intercept 8.103692 0.003411 2376.1 <2e-16 ***
    America -5.42463 0.099074 -54.75 <2e-16 ***
    Australia -4.8456 0.1961 -24.7 <2e-16 ***
    Europe -3.8533 0.0221 -174.62 <2e-16 ***
    Africa -15.2823 17.9285 -18.95 <2e-16 ***
    Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ‘ 1

    Table 1: Suggests that if a coronavirus case is to be reported, the expected number of reported cases in America will decrease by 5.4246 times compare to Asia while holding other variables in the model constant. Also, the expected number of reported cases is expected to decrease by 4.8456 times in Australia compare to Asia while holding other variables in the model constant.

    The expected number of reported cases is expected to decrease by 3.8533 times in Europe compare to Asia while holding other variable in the model constant. Finally, the expected number of reported cases is expected to decrease by 15.2823 times in Africa compare to Asia while holding other variable in the model constant. The table also shows that there is a significant difference between the reported cases in Asia compare to other continent since their P-value is less than 0.05 level of significance

     

    Table 2: Modelling Reported Cases of Death from Coronavirus using Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP) Model

    Count Model Coefficients (Poisson with Log Link):

    Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
    Intercept 5.9118 0.0184 321.369 <2e-16 ***
    America -7.1645 0.7208 -9.939 <2e-16 ***
    Europe -3.0219 0.1677 -18.018 <2e-16 ***
    Others -7.5193 1.0812 -6.955 3.53e-12 ***
    Zero-Inflation model coefficients (binomial with logit link):
    Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
    Intercept 0.812 0.425 1.91 0.0561
    America -5.8876 21.1527 -0.278 0.7808
    Europe 1.7913 0.8473 2.114 0.0345*
    Others -4.6634 18.8887 -0.247 0.805
    Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ‘ 1

     

    Table 2: Shows the fitted model for the reported cases of death and the zero cases using ZIP model. The table suggests that if an infected person from coronavirus is reported dead, the expected number of death reported cases is expected to decrease in America by 7.1645 times compare to Asia while holding other variable in the model constant. Also, the expected number of reported cases of death is expected to decrease by 3.0219 times in Europe compare to Asia while holding other variables in the model constant.

    The expected number of reported cases of death is expected to decrease by 7.5193 times in other continents (Australia and Africa) compare to Asia while holding other variables in the model constant. The table shows that there is a significant difference between the reported cases in Asia compare to other continents since their P-value is less than 0.05 level of significance.

    ONGOING RESEARCH IN GET

    GET is currently working on the influence of environmental conditions on the spread of the mortality rate of COVID-19.

    We are correlating the weather parameters (Temperature and Relative Humidity) to the spread and death rate resulting from COVID-19.

Document available for Download Below:

Research on COVID-19

Global Emerging Pathogens Treatment (GET) Consortium owns an exclusive right on the above information. For External Usage, do well to credit the organization and for academic usage, contact the COO-bobadoyed@getafrica.org

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